5 Reasons Rising Interest Rates Won’t Wreck the Housing Market

This blog post is written by our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner at Windermere Real Estate and originally posted on the Windermere site here: https://www.windermere.com/blogs/windermere/posts/5-reasons-rising-interest-rates-won-t-wreck-the-housing-market

I found the content too valuable not to share on my own blog!

5 Reasons Rising Interest Rates Won’t Wreck the Housing Market

Written by Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist, Windermere Real Estate

Interest rates have been trending higher since the fall of 2017, and I fully expect they will continue in that direction – albeit relatively slowly – as we move through the balance of the year and into 2019. So what does this mean for the US housing market?

It might come as a surprise to learn that I really don’t think rising interest rates will have a major impact on the housing market. Here is my reasoning: 

1. First Time Home Buyers 

As interest rates rise, I expect more buyers to get off the fence and into the market; specifically, first time buyers who, according to Freddie Mac, made up nearly half of new mortgages in the first quarter of this year. First-time buyers are critical to the overall health of the housing market because of the subsequent chain reaction of sales that result so this is actually a positive outcome of rising rates.

2. Easing Credit Standards

Rising interest rates may actually push some lenders to modestly ease credit standards. I know this statement will cause some people to think that easing credit will immediately send us back to the days of sub-prime lending and housing bubbles, but I don’t see this happening. Even a very modest easing of credit will allow for more than one million new home buyers to qualify for a mortgage.

3. Low Unemployment 

We stand today in a country with very low unemployment (currently 4.0% and likely to get close to 3.5% by year’s end). Low unemployment rates encourage employers to raise wages to keep existing talent, as well as to recruit new talent. Wage growth can, to a degree, offset increasing interest rates because, as wages rise, buyers can afford higher mortgage payments.

4. Supply

There is a clear relationship between housing supply, home prices, and interest rates. We’re already seeing a shift in inventory levels with more homes coming on the market, and I fully expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future. This increase in supply is, in part, a result of homeowners looking to cash in on their home’s appreciation before interest rates rise too far. This, on its own, will help ease the growth of home prices and offset rising interest rates. Furthermore, if we start to see more new construction activity at the lower end of the market, this too will help.   

5. National versus Local

Up until this point, I’ve looked at how rising interest rates might impact the housing market on a national level, but as we all know, real estate is local, and different markets react to shifts in different ways. For example, rising interest rates will be felt more in expensive housing markets, such as San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, and Orange County, but I expect to see less impact in areas like Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburg, and Detroit, where buyers spend a lower percentage of their incomes on housing. The exception to this would be if interest rates continue to rise for a prolonged period; in that case, we might see demand start to taper off, especially in the less expensive housing markets where buyers are more price sensitive. 

For more than seven years, home buyers and real estate professionals alike have grown very accustomed to historically low interest rates. We always knew the time would come when they would begin to rise again, but that doesn’t mean the outlook for housing is doom and gloom. On the contrary, I believe rising interest rates will help bring us closer to a more balanced real estate market, something that is sorely needed in many markets across the country. 


Posted on September 20, 2018 at 2:40 am
Caroline Abkar | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , ,

Rebuilding my Real Estate blog, one post at a time!

Thank you for stopping by! I recently joined Windermere’s stellar team and with that process came this brand new website which provides awesome features for you: my readers and followers. This also means that I am sorting through all my blogs posts to bring back the most relevant ones here and also carve time out to keep bringing you valuable and fun content.

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Yours truly,
Caroline

Caroline Abkar , REALTOR®
DRE# 01998434
619.808.4804
caroline@yoursandiegorealty.com


Posted on September 20, 2018 at 1:37 am
Caroline Abkar | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged

Best tips to prepare your home for selling

 By Caroline Abkar | July 2017

Just a few days ago, I walked into a home with my clients where we were greeted with the overpowering scent of a deodorizing spray which really was just blending in with whatever odor had to be deodorized. Not off to a great start. Then, we took a look at the bedrooms and saw clothes piled everywhere on the beds and even on the floor.  As we peaked into the bathroom, we were struck by the musty smell of bike gear lying on the counter top. We stepped outside for a breath of fresh air and the grass was covering half our legs. I tend to attract fleas and got itchy pretty quickly 

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Posted on September 20, 2018 at 1:31 am
Caroline Abkar | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , ,

How I helped this military family find their dream home in Imperial Beach!

 By Caroline Abkar | April 2017

When I was called upon to help a Navy Seal and his wife with the purchase of their first home, I didn’t take the job lightly. I usually pride myself on taking on challenges and going the extra mile for my clients and this was yet another wonderful opportunity to do that. I also felt incredibly privileged to serve this military couple, and somehow be helpful in return for their tremendous service.

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Posted on September 20, 2018 at 1:26 am
Caroline Abkar | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , ,

Interview with Dave Rudie of Catalina Offshore Products

 By Caroline Abkar | April 2017

I am privileged to chat with Dave Rudie today, owner of Catalina Offshore Products, a place where businesses and consumers can get their hands on restaurant quality seafood right here at the intersection of Bay Park and Morena. We chatted about how and why he started Catalina Offshore Products, what he loves about Bay Park and also about sustainable fishing practices and how he supports it through his company. Dave’s pride and passion for seafood are reflected in the quality and uniqueness of our ocean’s wonderful bounty available right through his store. Enjoy the interview and please share your thoughts, comments and questions as always!

 Caroline Abkar: Dave, can you tell us a bit about yourself and your background?

Dave Rudie: Sure! It all began for me 40 years ago when I was a sea urchin diver and seaweed diver off the backside of Catalina Island. I fell in love with the ocean when I first snorkeled at 16 years old. I studied Marine Biology at UC Irvine and I was a sport diver on the weekends. I saw a lot of sea urchins and the dive clubs recommended we kill them because they were eating kelp beds. I heard of a new market for sea urchins kicking off right around that time, where they were buying them for 7c/pound…! I therefore became a sea urchin diver and sold my catch right off my boat along the coast of Catalina Island. I acquired a bigger boat and worked all over as a fisherman. After I moved to San Diego, I began processing the sea urchins in my garage and a plant I was able to use by night, and sold them directly to sushi bars. I also found wholesalers and a buyer in Japan, when sea urchins and sushi started gaining popularity.

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Posted on September 20, 2018 at 1:18 am
Caroline Abkar | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , ,

Thank you for making the first toy drive a huge success!

 By Caroline Abkar | December 2016

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This first used toy drive was a resounding success! Our office space was a joy to come into with all the toys that kept piling up and spreading out. Thank you so much to every single one of you who donated and/or spread the word about this initiative. So many of you were thankful to be able to share their gently used toys to others in need instead of having to sell them or pass them on to thrift stores. Your generosity will help put smiles on children’s faces this holiday season. Thank you: Continue reading


Posted on September 20, 2018 at 1:12 am
Caroline Abkar | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , ,

Marston Middle School is getting a makeover!

 By Caroline Abkar | October 2016

San Diego Unified’s School Choice Enrollment for the 2017-18 school year is currently in progress and there is much to be excited about these days when it comes to Clairemont’s Schools. The neighborhood already boasts stellar elementary schools and now principal Jon Gollias is on a mission to turn Marston Middle School into a high performing, safe school where students will thrive and reach their full potential. With more and more local families choosing Marston, the school is on its way to becoming a neighborhood school again.

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Posted on September 20, 2018 at 1:00 am
Caroline Abkar | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , ,

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