By Caroline Abkar, Realtor
Whether you’re in the market now or will be in the near future, this video will help you understand what to look out for and how COVID-19 is affecting the real estate market right now.
By Caroline Abkar, Realtor
There is good reason to be confused about the California Proposition 13 ballot measure. While I won’t sway anyone’s vote one way or another, I think it’s important to make the most informed decision possible so here is a breakdown of what you need to read/know.
Firstly, this ballot measure is not, nor does it have any real bearing on, the Proposition 13 — the landmark 1978 initiative that limits property taxes and restricts their annual increase. That Prop 13 transformed the state’s finances and has since become a “third rail” in California politics. It seems like an accident of fate that they have the same name.
🏡 Sneak peak! This beauty will be ready any day now in Bay Park and I plan to hold it open this weekend Sat 2/8 & Sun 2/9 @ 1-4pm 🔥🔥
🌴 3 bedrooms
🌴 2 bathrooms
🌴 1,722 Sq Ft
🌴 2 car garage
🌴 6,800 Sq Ft lot
🌴 Partial bay and ocean views!
🌴 Fully remodeled
🌴 Price being finalized, most likely $1,195,000-$1,295,000.
For more details and to confirm readiness, please call/text/message me at 📲 619-808-4804
Caroline Abkar, REALTOR®, B.Sc.Eng.
Your Trusted Realtor and Advisor For Life
Windermere Homes & Estates
📲 : 619.808.4804
📧 : Caroline@YourSanDiegoRealty.com
It’s that time of year when Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner dusts off his crystal ball and peers into the future to give us his predictions for the 2020 economy and housing market!
In general, the economy performed pretty much as I expected this year: job growth slowed but the unemployment rate still hovers around levels not seen since the late 1960s.
Following the significant drop in corporate tax rates in January 2018, economic growth experience a big jump. However, we haven’t been able to continue those gains and I doubt we’ll return to 2%+ growth next year. Due to this slowing, I expect GDP to come in at only +1.4% next year. Non-residential fixed investment has started to wane as companies try to anticipate where economic policy will move next year. Furthermore, many businesses remain concerned over ongoing trade issues with China.
In 2020, I expect payrolls to continue growing, but the rate of growth will slow as the country adds fewer than 1.7 million new jobs. Due to this hiring slow down, the unemployment rate will start to rise, but still end the year at a very respectable 4.1%.
Many economists, including me, spent much of 2019 worried about the specter of a looming recession in 2020. Thankfully, such fears have started to wane (at least for now).
Despite some concerning signs, the likelihood that we will enter a recession in 2020 has dropped to about 26%. If we manage to stave off a recession in 2020, the possibility of a slowdown in 2021 is around 74%. That said, I fully expect that any drop in growth will be mild and will not negatively affect the U.S. housing market.
As I write this article, full-year data has yet to be released. However, I feel confident that 2019 will end with a slight rise in home sales. For 2020, I expect sales to rise around 2.9% to just over 5.5 million units.
Home prices next year will continue to rise as mortgage rates remain very competitive. Look for prices to increase 3.8% in 2020 as demand continues to exceed supply and more first-time buyers enter the market.
In the year ahead, I expect the share of first-time buyers to grow, making them a very significant component of the housing market.
The new-home market has been pretty disappointing for most of the year due to significant obstacles preventing builders from building. Land prices, labor and material costs, and regulatory fees make it very hard for builders to produce affordable housing. As a result, many are still focused on the luxury market where there are profits to be made, despite high demand from entry-level buyers.
Builders are aware of this and are doing their best to deliver more affordable product. As such, I believe single-family housing starts will rise next year to 942,000 units—an increase of 6.8% over 2019 and the highest number since 2007.
As the market starts to deliver more units, sales will rise just over 5%, but the increase in sales will be due to lower priced housing. Accordingly, new home prices are set to rise just 2.5% next year.
Next year will still be very positive from a home-financing perspective, with the average rate for a 30-year conventional, fixed-rate mortgage averaging under 4%. That said, if there are significant improvements in trade issues with China, this forecast may change, but not significantly.
In this coming year, affordability issues will persist in many markets around the country, such as San Francisco; Los Angeles; San Jose; Seattle; and Bend, Oregon. The market will also continue to favor home sellers, but we will start to move more toward balance, resulting in another positive year overall for U.S. housing.
About Matthew Gardner:
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
By Caroline Abkar, Realtor – 9/23/2019
Buyers always ask me: when is the best time to buy a house? Turns out, realtor.com crunched numbers to figure out exactly when the best time to buy a house for 2019 is and it is… right now, right this week!
Statistics show that there will be north of 26% less competition for buyers out there with many families having already settled in time for back to school. In addition, homes that did not sell over the summer are seeing increased market days which in turn equates to motivated sellers. There is also some new fall inventory hitting the market as we speak, with sellers wanting to close their transaction before the end of 2019. Realtor.com projects a 6% increase in inventory starting this week. Throw in the low interest rates, and it’s the perfect home buying environment out there.
I am sharing my top 5 tips on to get that deal. It’s all in my quick video!
About the author: Caroline Abkar is an established Realtor and Bay Park resident who is absolutely passionate about the community as well as representing her clients in selling and acquiring the biggest investment of their lives. She will go above and beyond for those who place their trust in her. You can contact her anytime at 619-808-4804.
This blog post is written by our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner at Windermere Real Estate and originally posted on the Windermere site here: https://www.windermere.com/blogs/windermere/posts/5-reasons-rising-interest-rates-won-t-wreck-the-housing-market
I found the content too valuable not to share on my own blog!
5 Reasons Rising Interest Rates Won’t Wreck the Housing Market
Written by Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist, Windermere Real Estate
Interest rates have been trending higher since the fall of 2017, and I fully expect they will continue in that direction – albeit relatively slowly – as we move through the balance of the year and into 2019. So what does this mean for the US housing market?
It might come as a surprise to learn that I really don’t think rising interest rates will have a major impact on the housing market. Here is my reasoning:
1. First Time Home Buyers
As interest rates rise, I expect more buyers to get off the fence and into the market; specifically, first time buyers who, according to Freddie Mac, made up nearly half of new mortgages in the first quarter of this year. First-time buyers are critical to the overall health of the housing market because of the subsequent chain reaction of sales that result so this is actually a positive outcome of rising rates.